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CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute

(Formerly CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation)

A constituent laboratory of Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR).

Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India.

by Priya Singh, Aditya Anand, Shweta Rana, Amit Kumar, Sujeet Kumar, Prabudh Goel, Krushna Chandra Gouda, Harpreet Singh

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread morbidity, mortality, and socio-economic disruptions worldwide. Vaccination has proven to be a crucial strategy in controlling the spread of the virus and mitigating its impact.

Objective: The study focuses on assessing the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in reducing the incidence of positive cases, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. The presented study is focused on the COVID-19 fully vaccinated population by considering the data from the first positive case reported until 20 September 2021.

Methods: Using data from multiple countries, time series analysis is deployed to investigate the variations in the COVID-19 positivity rates, hospitalization rates, and ICU requirements after successful vaccination campaigns at the country scale.

Results: Analysis of the COVID-19 positivity rates revealed a substantial decline in countries with high pre-vaccination rates. Within 1–3 months of vaccination campaigns, these rates decreased by 20–44%. However, certain countries experienced an increase in positivity rates with the emergence of the new Delta variant, emphasizing the importance of ongoing monitoring and adaptable vaccination strategies. Similarly, the analysis of hospitalization rates demonstrated a steady decline as vaccination drive rates rose in various countries. Within 90 days of vaccination, several countries achieved hospitalization rates below 200 per million. However, a slight increase in hospitalizations was observed in some countries after 180 days of vaccination, underscoring the need for continued vigilance. Furthermore, the ICU patient rates decreased as vaccination rates increased across most countries. Within 120 days, several countries achieved an ICU patient rate of 20 per million, highlighting the effectiveness of vaccination in preventing severe cases requiring intensive care.

Conclusion: COVID-19 vaccination has proven to be very much effective in reducing the incidence of cases, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. However, ongoing surveillance, variant monitoring, and adaptive vaccination strategies are crucial for maximizing the benefits of vaccination and effectively controlling the spread of the virus.

Source: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1272961