Thu, Nov 21, 2024
Text Size

CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute

(Formerly CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation)

A constituent laboratory of Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR).

Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India.

CSIR Portals

Events/Seminars @CSIR-4PI

Past Events/Seminars

Notifications/Announcements

News

Modelling for science, for a better future - some recent outcomes

by V. Rakesh, G. N. Mohapatra & Ajay Bankar 

Urban extreme rainfall events (UEREs) are one of the weather hazards where modelers continue to struggle for accurate advance prediction despite recent advances in forecasting techniques. Bangalore, one of the prominent IT hubs in India, witnessed many urban flash floods in the recent past; a number of such events happened on 14 and 15 of August 2017, where overnight heavy rains brought several parts of the city to a standstill. In this study, the skill of sub-kilometer resolution forecasts from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating these UEREs is examined. This study also compared the model performance for forecasts initialized from different forecast cycles in a day. Our examination for two UERE cases showed that forecast initialized at 0600 UTC yielded best results in terms of forecasting spatial distribution and intensity of rainfall. Our analysis also indicated that increasing model resolution further in convection-permitting resolution (< 3 km) has only marginal impact on spatial distribution of rainfall while model skill in simulating rainfall intensity slightly improved with increasing resolution. As expected, simulation by not deploying a cumulus scheme at cloud-resolving resolution do not make a significant difference in spatial distribution; however, inclusion of cumulus scheme improved quantitative precipitation forecast skill. The inferences from this study are useful for modelers working on improving operational forecast skill of UEREs using mesoscale model.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00794-1

by Sharanya J. Majumdar; Juanzhen Sun; Brian Golding; Paul Joe; Jimy Dudhia; Olivier Caumont; Krushna Chandra Gouda; Peter Steinle; Béatrice Vincendon; Jianjie Wang Nusrat Yussouf

Improving the forecasting and communication of weather hazards such as urban floods and extreme winds has been recognized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a priority for international weather research. The WMO has established a ten-year “HIWeather” project to address global challenges and accelerate progress on scientific and social solutions. In this review, key challenges in hazard forecasting are first illustrated and summarized via four examples of high-impact weather events. Following this, a synthesis of the requirements, current status, and future research in Observations; Multiscale Data Assimilation; Multiscale Ensemble Forecasting; and Multiscale Coupled Hazard Modeling is provided.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0111.1 

by K. C. Gouda, S. Joshi & Nagaraj Bhat 

Using an initial manifold approach, an ensemble forecast methodology is shown to simultaneously increase lead and realizable skill in long-range forecasting of monsoon over continental India. Initial manifold approach distinguishes the initial states that have coherence from a collection of unrelated states. In this work, an optimized and validated variable resolution general circulation model is being adopted for long-range forecasting of monsoon using the multi-lead ensemble methodology. In terms of realizable skill (as against potential) at resolution (~60km) and lead (2–5 months) considered here, the present method performs very well. The skill of the improved methodology is significant, capturing 9 of the 12 extreme years of monsoon during 1980–2003 in seasonal (June–August) scale. Eight-member ensemble-average hindcasts carried out for realizable skill with lead of 2 (for June) to 5 (for August) months and an optimum ensemble is presented.

 

Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03589-x and https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-021-03589-x

More Articles ...

  1. High‐resolution climate change projection of northeast monsoon rainfall over peninsular India
  2. Evaluation of the Skill of a Fully-Coupled Atmospheric–Hydrological Model in Simulating Extreme Hydrometeorological Event: A Case Study Over Cauvery River Catchment
  3. Insights from a Pan India Sero-Epidemiological survey (Phenome-India Cohort) for SARS-CoV2
  4. On the build-up of dust aerosols and possible indirect effect during Indian summer monsoon break spells using recent satellite observations of aerosols and cloud properties
  5. Evaluating the Spatial Distribution of WRF-Simulated Rainfall, 2-m Air Temperature, and 2-m Relative Humidity over the Urban Region of Bangalore, India
  6. Seasonal horizontal deformations obtained using GPS and GRACE data: case study of North-East India and Nepal Himalaya
  7. Data sequence signal manipulation in multipath TCP (MPTCP): The vulnerability, attack and its detection
  8. Revisiting the seismogenic characteristics of stable continental interiors: The case of three Indian events
  9. Comparison of the performance of HYBRID ETKF-3DVAR and 3DVAR data assimilation scheme on the forecast of tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal
  10. Impact of Urbanization on Heavy Rainfall Events: A Case Study over the Megacity of Bengaluru, India

Vision: 

To synergize the Transdisciplinary Pan-CSIR expertise and build a unified platform that embodies a rich set of big data enabling technologies and services with optimized performance to facilitate data intensive scientific discovery in the country.

Mission:

To Pioneer data driven interdisciplinary research in diverse fields through state-of-the-art data science ecosystem and impactful industrial partnerships for the betterment of Society.

Mandate: 

To develop cutting edge data science products as a horizontal across the CSIR Themes and position as an Institute of Excellence in Bigdata and Artificial Intelligence.

Student Programme for Advancement in Research Knowledge (SPARK)

SPARK is intended to provide a unique opportunity to bright and motivated students of reputed Universities to carry out their major project/thesis work and advance their research knowledge in mathematical modelling and simulation of complex systems. The programme is intended to increase the interaction between scientists and faculty members of academic institutes along with their students towards a long term research collaboration. Click here to apply for SPARK.

A FAQ on SPARK is available here.