Modelling for science, for a better future - some recent outcomes

A new rain-based index for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

by Sulochana Gadgil, K Rajendran and D S Pai

Abstract: Most of the studies of the observed variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), its prediction and of its impact have involved analysis of an index for ISMR derived by Parthasarathy et al. (1995) or the all-India rainfall during the summer monsoon, available from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) website. Both these indices are based on the average rainfall over the meteorological subdivisions of India. Rajeevan et al. (2006) first derived a gridded rainfall data set for the Indian region which was at a resolution of 1° and subsequently, Pai et al. (2014) have derived a finer resolution (0.25°) rainfall data set for the same region. At present, these data sets are widely used by modelers to generate the ‘observed’ ISMR for assessment of the skill of their models. However, in different studies, different regions are used for averaging the grid data to obtain the ‘observed’ ISMR. For proper assessment and comparison of the skill of the simulations/predictions by different models/versions, it is important that the same region be used for averaging the rainfall to obtain the observed ISMR in each case. Here, we suggest what we consider as the appropriate regions for averaging the rainfall in terms of the 1° and 0.25° to derive/represent ISMR, on the basis of the present understanding of the monsoonal regions and the Indian summer monsoon. We show that the interannual variation of the ISMR thus derived (by averaging rainfall over the regions identified in this study) from gridded data sets is largely consistent with the indices derived as the area weighted sub-divisional rainfall data used in the indices used earlier.

Citation: Sulochana Gadgil, K Rajendran and D S Pai (2019): A new rain-based index for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, MAUSAM, 70 (3), 485-500

URL: https://metnet.imd.gov.in/mausamdocs/17036_F.pdf 

Rupture of the Indian slab in the 2011 Mw 6.9 Sikkim Himalaya earthquake and its tectonic implications

by T. C. Sunilkumar, Anil Earnest, Silpa K and Ronia Andrews

Unlike the other Himalayan plate boundary segments, the eastern Nepal to Bhutan Himalayan region is not known to have generated prominent shallow thrust faulting earthquakes, typical of the ongoing convergence. This region has unusual strike‐slip earthquake occurrences over the depth ranges of 40‐120 km, possibly indicating intraslab deformation. Here, we present for the first time a slip distribution model for the largest ever recorded intraslab strike‐slip earthquake in this region, the Mw 6.9 Sikkim event that occurred on 18th September 2011. Relying on kinematic source process modeling, our results indicate a NE‐SW trending, steeply dipping sinistral source zone within the underthrusting Indian slab. The rupture propagated radially, with a low rupture velocity of 1.7 km/s, breaking a large asperity of 20×20 km2 with a maximum slippage of 1.6 m. The rupture nucleated at a depth of 45 km and reached upper mantle depths. The computed co‐seismic stress drop value is 13.6 MPa. We suggest that most of the aftershocks occurred on the conjugate plane, possibly due to stress triggering. Stress inversion of focal mechanisms indicates a transpressive stress regime throughout the crust and pure strike‐slip regime in the upper mantle. We observed a unimodal distribution of earthquakes beneath the Higher Himalaya. This indicates a strong, brittle Indian slab and unravels a scenario of an eventual break‐up of the lithosphere; the key trigger might be variation in the convergence rates along the Himalayan arc.

Source: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018JB015931  and doi: 10.1029/2018jb015931