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CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute

(Formerly CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation)

A constituent laboratory of Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR).

Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India.

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Modelling for science, for a better future - some recent outcomes

by Payoshni Samantray and Krushna Chandra Gouda

This comprehensive study aims to investigate the cloudburst events that occurred in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) during the year 2022, focusing on their characteristics, structure and dynamics. Cloudburst events have been observed in different states of the Himalayan region, with their unique geographical features, and are susceptible to extreme weather phenomena, which pose significant challenges to the local communities and infrastructure. A majority of cloudburst events occur within the folds of valleys of the Indian Himalayas, where elevations range from 325 to 4073 m. As the year 2022 witnessed frequent cloudburst events in the IHR (Himachal Pradesh recorded around 24 cloudburst events, Uttarakhand recorded 18 and Jammu and Kashmir recorded 24 events), an attempt is being made for the comprehensive analysis of the role of atmospheric dynamics to result in such extreme events in the valley region. The analysis clearly advocates that certain atmospheric phenomena, such as frontal boundaries like temperature, humidity, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition, or atmospheric disturbances, can act as triggers for cloud burst events. The spatial distribution of different thermodynamic parameters during the previous day, event day and the day after the cloudburst events are also analysed to quantify the role of atmospheric dynamics in the temporal distribution. This study has highlighted the importance of low-level jets and moisture transport in forming the convective systems that lead to cloudbursts over the Himalayan region due to wind patterns.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-024-02370-8 
 

by Siva Sai Kumar Rajana, Sampad Kumar Panda, Sridevi Jade, Chiranjeevi G. Vivek

The occurrence characteristics of Equatorial F-region Irregularities (EFIs) along the Indian longitude sector are investigated using GPS-derived ROTI observations from 2010 to 2023, under both quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. The analysis of the results emphasizes a strong dependence of EFIs occurrence on solar cycle variation. Additionally, the EFIs are more intense at the EIA regions under maximum solar activity periods attributed to the high ambient electron density in the F-layer. The occurrence of EFIs is found to be severe and frequently observed in equinox seasons in contrast to solstice seasons. Also, the occurrence of EFIs exhibits equinoctial asymmetry with more intense EFIs in the spring equinox than autumn equinox during the peak and declining periods of the solar cycle. Conversely, severe EFIs are observed during autumn equinox than spring equinox in the ascending phase of the solar cycle. The seasonal occurrence probability of EFIs is highest in the equinox seasons, following the winter solstice, and summer solstice in high solar activity conditions. Investigations of EFIs during two prominent geomagnetic storm events (17 March 2015 and 08 September 2017) during the study period show that the storm-induced Prompt Penetration Electric Fields (PPEFs) modulated the regular intensity of dusk time Pre-Reversal Enhancement (PRE), resulting in poleward expansion of ionospheric irregularities up to mid-latitude regions with spatial time lags. However, storm-induced westward electric fields and oscillating IMF Bz created Counter Electrojet (CEJ) like conditions, suppressing the dusk time ionospheric irregularities over dip equatorial and low-latitude regions on 17 March 2013. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of how ionospheric irregularities manifest under varying conditions, thereby supporting further research on substantiating the spatiotemporal EFIs characteristics and their predictions over the region.

by Rani Devi, K. C. Gouda & Smrutishree Lenka 

By exploring the multifaceted physical mechanisms underlying hot extreme events, the way for informed strategies to mitigate their impacts and enhance the nation's resilience in the wake of a changing climate can be paved. The long-term spatio-temporal variability of hot extremes analysis found an increasing trend (0.001 °C) of DMXT over whole Indian region except the eastern parts (Indo-Gangetic plains). The hot day is noted when DMXT > 40 °C, DMXT > 37 °C, DMXT > 35 °C and also DMXT is above the 90th percentile at each grid point in the plains, hilly, coastal region of India. The temperature tendency equation has been computed to identify the role of various physical processes driving the local extreme temperature changes in India. The analysis showed that the surface adiabatic warming found to be one of the prominent drivers of hot extreme events over India. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases on the frequency of hot extreme days at local scale in India are quantified. The linear trend of hot days has been found increasing at a rate of 0.14/year, 0.08/year and 0.06/year in El Niño, La Niña and neutral years respectively. Similarly, the DMXT anomaly found to be 0.4 °C higher in El Niño phase as compared to La Niña phase. The results infers that the chances of hot days occurrence are increased (decreased) by 38% (16% and 8%) in El Niño (La Niña and neutral) period. The advection of hot air by westerlies into the Indian region leads to an increase in temperature. The composite elevated (dropped) geopotential height at 500 hPa showed the presence of high (low) pressure systems which leads to hot days occurrence over western, southern and central (northern, north western) India, where winds are westerlies (easterlies) in El Niño (La Niña) phase of ENSO. This reversal of wind is linked with the movement of warm sea surface temperature from western to eastern Pacific Ocean. Comprehending the dynamics of hot extremes in the India is vital for the development of strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts on various sectors, including agriculture, health, water resources, and infrastructure.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-024-02744-w 

 

More Articles ...

  1. Homogeneity Adjustment of Surface Temperature Data and Study of the Climate Variability Over Coastal Odisha by a Climate Departure Index
  2. Assessment of Country-Specific GHG Emissions from Road Transport Sector in India
  3. Decoding low-frequency climate variations: A case study on ENSO and ocean surface warming
  4. Intensity duration and frequency of Heat wave in different phases of MJO over India
  5. Impact of two severe geomagnetic storms on the ionosphere over Indian longitude sector during March-April 2023
  6. Impact of COVID-19 vaccination: a global perspective
  7. Precipitation Scaling in Extreme Rainfall Events and the Implications for Future Indian Monsoon: Analysis of High-Resolution Global Climate Model Simulations
  8. Modeling and forecasting atmospheric Carbon Dioxide concentrations at Bengaluru city in India
  9. Implications of seismic and GNSS strain rates in Himachal, Kashmir and Ladakh
  10. Projected changes in heat wave characteristics over India

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To synergize the Transdisciplinary Pan-CSIR expertise and build a unified platform that embodies a rich set of big data enabling technologies and services with optimized performance to facilitate data intensive scientific discovery in the country.

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To Pioneer data driven interdisciplinary research in diverse fields through state-of-the-art data science ecosystem and impactful industrial partnerships for the betterment of Society.

Mandate: 

To develop cutting edge data science products as a horizontal across the CSIR Themes and position as an Institute of Excellence in Bigdata and Artificial Intelligence.

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