Sun, Dec 01, 2024
Text Size

CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute

(Formerly CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation)

A constituent laboratory of Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR).

Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India.

CSIR Portals

Events/Seminars @CSIR-4PI

Past Events/Seminars

Notifications/Announcements

News

Modelling for science, for a better future - some recent outcomes

by Priyanshi Singhai, Arindam Chakraborty, Kavirajan Rajendran & Sajani Surendran 

Abstract:
Interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is explained through the total column water vapor in the atmosphere, primarily controlled by the incoming zonal moisture flux over the Arabian Sea (Fw) and outgoing flux over the Bay of Bengal (Fe). In this study, we discern the underlying mechanisms driving Fw and Fe leading to ISMR droughts in the observations and seasonal hindcasts by the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model. In observations, a reduction in Fw is essential for droughts to occur. In addition, an increase in Fe results in a severe drought. On the contrary, droughts in CFSv2 primarily occur due to an enhancement in Fe, seldom accompanied by a decrease in Fw. This hypersensitivity of the CFSv2 ISMR to Fe is further explained using Matsuno–Gill response to moist convection. During El Nino droughts, precipitation decreases over the equatorial western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans. The resulting anomalous diabatic cooling increases local surface pressure (SP), intensifying meridional SP gradient, and thus, Fe. The reduction in Fw , however,  is associated with a cooling of the central north Pacific Ocean in tandem with El Nino. During non-El Nino droughts, frequent occurrences of cold sea surface temperature over the western north Pacific Ocean are noticed. This cooling decreases SP over east Asia, resulting in an increase in Fe. To summarize, droughts in CFSv2 are controlled by the pan-Pacific climate, significantly increasing Fe but weakly decreasing Fw. But in observations, a strong decrease in Fw and a moderate increase in Fe together lead to droughts.

 

Link:

by Raghavendra Prasad K, Kantha Rao Bhimala, G. K. Patra, Himesh S & Sheshakumar Goroshi 

The present study analyzed the actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and its components [transpiration (Et), bare soil evaporation (Eb), interception loss (Ei), and open water evaporation (Eo)] data to study the long-term (1980–2018) trends over different meteorological sub-divisions in India. Quantitatively, all India average (µ) annual ETa is 573 mm (standard deviation (σ) = 29 mm), where Et (µ = 456 mm; σ = 30 mm) plays a major role compared to other evaporation processes like Eb (µ = 56 mm; σ = 9 mm), Ei (µ = 34 mm; σ = 3 mm), and Eo (µ = 27 mm). The Mann–Kendall (MK) test reveals an increasing trend (1.33 mm/yr) in annual ETa due to the rising trend in Et (1.91 mm/yr) and Ei (0.16 mm/yr). The sub-division-wise analysis shows the increasing trend in ETa observed over irrigated regions located in the south, north-west, and foothills of the Himalayas during pre-monsoon (March–May) and monsoon season (June–September). The correlation analysis observed a complex relationship between ETa and climatic factors (rainfall (RF), soil moisture (SM), surface temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), surface net solar radiation (SSR), and wind speed (WS)) during monsoon season such that the water-limited areas have a positive correlation with SM, RH and RF, and negative correlation with WS, T, and SSR, whereas, in energy-limited areas (east India), the ETa showed a positive correlation with SSR and T and negative correlation with RF. The main climatic drivers for the increasing trend of ETa are SM and rainfall over dry regions and SSR and T over densely vegetated regions in India.

 Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-023-04436-x 

by Nikhila Yaladanda, Rajasekhar Mopuri, Hariprasad Vavilala, Kantha Rao Bhimala, Krushna Chandra Gouda, Madhusudhan Rao Kadiri, Suryanarayana Murty Upadhyayula & Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni

Abstract

The northeast region of India is highlighted as the most vulnerable region for malaria. This study attempts to explore the epidemiological profile and quantify the climate-induced influence on malaria cases in the context of tropical states, taking Meghalaya and Tripura as study areas. Monthly malaria cases and meteorological data from 2011 to 2018 and 2013 to 2019 were collected from the states of Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively. The nonlinear associations between individual and synergistic effect of meteorological factors and malaria cases were assessed, and climate-based malaria prediction models were developed using the generalized additive model (GAM) with Gaussian distribution. During the study period, a total of 216,943 and 125,926 cases were recorded in Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively, and majority of the cases occurred due to the infection of Plasmodium falciparum in both the states. The temperature and relative humidity in Meghalaya and temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and soil moisture in Tripura showed a significant nonlinear effect on malaria; moreover, the synergistic effects of temperature and relative humidity (SI=2.37, RERI=0.58, AP=0.29) and temperature and rainfall (SI=6.09, RERI=2.25, AP=0.61) were found to be the key determinants of malaria transmission in Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively. The developed climate-based malaria prediction models are able to predict the malaria cases accurately in both Meghalaya (RMSE: 0.0889; R2: 0.944) and Tripura (RMSE: 0.0451; R2: 0.884). The study found that not only the individual climatic factors can significantly increase the risk of malaria transmission but also the synergistic effects of climatic factors can drive the malaria transmission multifold. This reminds the policymakers to pay attention to the control of malaria in situations with high temperature and relative humidity and high temperature and rainfall in Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26672-4 

 

More Articles ...

  1. 3-D Crustal structure in Kumaon–Garhwal Himalaya using joint inversion of receiver functions and surface wave group velocity
  2. Trends of seasonal and annual rainfall of semi-arid districts of Karnataka, India: application of innovative trend analysis approach
  3. Deep learning methods for scientific and industrial research
  4. Impact of comorbidity on patients with COVID-19 in India: A nationwide analysis
  5. Extreme rainfall event analysis over the state of Himachal Pradesh in India
  6. Relationship of height and intensity of low-level jet stream with Indian summer monsoon rainfall
  7. Exacerbation of Indian Summer Monsoon Breaks by the Indirect Effect of Regional Dust Aerosols
  8. Assessing the impact of modified LULC on extreme hydrological event over a complex terrain: A case study for kodagu 2018 flood event
  9. Association of winter vegetation activity across the indo-gangetic plain with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall
  10. Seismic hazard potential of Kachchh paleo-rift basin of Indian craton from seismic and geodetic strain rates

Vision: 

To synergize the Transdisciplinary Pan-CSIR expertise and build a unified platform that embodies a rich set of big data enabling technologies and services with optimized performance to facilitate data intensive scientific discovery in the country.

Mission:

To Pioneer data driven interdisciplinary research in diverse fields through state-of-the-art data science ecosystem and impactful industrial partnerships for the betterment of Society.

Mandate: 

To develop cutting edge data science products as a horizontal across the CSIR Themes and position as an Institute of Excellence in Bigdata and Artificial Intelligence.

Student Programme for Advancement in Research Knowledge (SPARK)

SPARK is intended to provide a unique opportunity to bright and motivated students of reputed Universities to carry out their major project/thesis work and advance their research knowledge in mathematical modelling and simulation of complex systems. The programme is intended to increase the interaction between scientists and faculty members of academic institutes along with their students towards a long term research collaboration. Click here to apply for SPARK.

A FAQ on SPARK is available here.