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(Formerly CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation)

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Modelling for science, for a better future - some recent outcomes

by Sumana Sarkar and S.Himesh

Abstract
The livelihoods and biodiversity in the Kodagu district of Karnataka are greatly altered by the growing urbanization through huge deforestation. The changes in the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) patterns have important implications on the heavy rainfall activity due to significant alterations in the spatial distribution of existing land-surface properties. Hence, in order to make region (like Kodagu) more climate resilient; it is utmost important to construct a novel coupled framework for hydro-meteorological prediction to assess the impact of changing LULC (degradation of forest cover owing to urban expansion) on extreme rainfall events. Only a well-calibrated, validated, and optimized coupled high-resolution hydrological-atmospheric modelling system can be one of the best tools to study such complex problems. Thus in the present study, we have enhanced the forecasting capability of the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model by coupling with a physically based, fully distributed, WRF-Hydro. The evaluation of the proposed model configurations (stand-alone and coupled mode) is done with respect to two LULC datasets (USGS, 1992: less urbanized scenario and ISRO, 2017: more urbanized scenario) to explore the underlying causes and hydrological responses behind the 2018 Kodagu flood event. The simulations have been contended with both the stand-alone and coupled WRF/WRF-hydro models with different LULC datasets and a comparative evaluation have been carried out. The simulated variables (rainfall, runoff, surface fluxes, and peak stream discharge) are evaluated and compared with observation to assess the impact of changing LULC pattern during the flood event.

Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364682622001341

by Randhir Singh, V Rakesh & A K Varma 

For the period 2001–2020, the interannual variability of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is investigated in connection to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). According to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI data, the ISMR and the vegetative activity of the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) in the month of January show a significant negative association. We hypothesized that the January vegetation state affects the ISMR via a delayed hydrological response, in which the wet soil moisture anomaly formed throughout the winter to accommodate the water needs of intensive farming influences the ISMR. The soil moisture anomalies developed in the winter, particularly in the root zone, persisted throughout the summer. Evaporative cooling triggered by increasing soil moisture lowers the summer surface temperature across the IGP. The weakening of monsoon circulation as a result of the reduced intensity of land-sea temperature contrast led in rainfall suppression. Further investigation shows that moisture transport has increased significantly over the past two decades as a result of increasing westerly over the Arabian Sea, promoting rainfall over India. Agriculture activities, on the other hand, have resulted in greater vegetation in India’s northwest and IGP during the last two decades, which has a detrimental impact on rainfall processes. Rainfall appears to have been trendless during the last two decades as a result of these competing influences. With a lead time of 5 months, this association between January’s vegetation and ISMR could be one of the potential predictors of seasonal rainfall variability.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06426-7 
 

by Sapna Ghavri, Rajeev Kumar Yadav and Sridevi Jade

The Kachchh paleo-rift basin of western India which recently experienced Mw 7.6, 26th January 2001 Bhuj earthquake, is one of the most active and vulnerable intra-cratonic zones in the world categorized as seismic zone V, i.e. having potential to produce earthquakes of intensity IX or higher. We analysed the geodetic and seismic principal strain rates to reveal the seismic hazard potential of the Kachchh paleo-rift basin. The geodetic strain rates are calculated from the reported surface motion in the region using a modified least-square inversion scheme that utilizes distance and spatial coverage dependent weight factor on the uncertainty in the plate motion to get a reliable estimate of principal strain rates and their orientations at regular grid nodes. An optimal weighting factor yields a mean rate of compression of ~ − 16 ± 6 nano strain/yr towards north-northeast in the region. The seismic strain rates are estimated based on fault plane solutions of the significant past earthquakes (Mw ≥ 2.5) of the region using the Kostrov formulations. The seismic strain rate and stress inversion estimate indicate that the region released elastic strain at an average rate of ~ − 85 nano strain/yr towards north-south in the past 350 years. A composite analysis of the geodetic and seismic strain rates indicates 900–3000 years of recurrence interval of major (Mw 7.8–8) earthquakes in the region. Our analysis indicates a high rate of strain build-up on the reactivated major faults in the region that have the potential to generate devastating (Mw ≥6) earthquakes.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2022.229458 

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