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(Formerly CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation)

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Modelling for science, for a better future - some recent outcomes

by K. C. Gouda, Sudhansu S. Rath, Nidhi Singh, Sayanta Ghosh & Renu Lata 

Extreme rainfall events (EREs) are very localized and intense events witnessing heavy rainfall resulting in flash floods and landslides in the Himalayan region. The trend of EREs in the state of Himachal Pradesh shows an increasing trend, so in this study, an attempt is being made for quantifying the climatological feature of these EREs in the state of Himachal Pradesh in the western Himalayan mountain region. Multi-source observed datasets for the long-term period, i.e., 1901 to 2020, are considered for the analysis. The climatology analysis indicates that northern and southern parts of Himachal Pradesh receive comparatively more rainfall, and the state witnessed a decreasing trend of the rainfall in the current decade. The classifications of these EREs in terms of monsoon and non-monsoon with a different threshold of daily rainfall are being analyzed, and it is found that almost 90% of extreme events are observed in the monsoon season. The zone centered around 32.5° N and 76.25° E seems to be the hotspot for the frequent EREs in the mountainous state. The spatial analysis of the ERE trend also indicated that almost 40% of the state witnesses the heavy rainfall throughout the years. This observational study will surely help in understanding the dynamics of these EREs in the higher altitude regions and can be used for hydro-meteorological disaster management and mitigation.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04331-x 
 
 
 

by Smrati Purwar, V. Rakesh, Ajay Bankar & G. N. Mohapatra 

A strong equatorial flow at lower troposphere exists over the Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in modulating the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) referred as monsoon low-level jet (MLLJ). The variation in strength and height of MLLJ can provide an important lead in predicting the variations in ISMR. The variability of MLLJ is examined using the fifth-generation ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis ERA-5; National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR)/Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2); the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, version-2 (MERRA-2); and radiosonde data during 40-year period (1979–2018). The results suggest that there is an increasing trend in MLLJ strength during July and September, but a decreasing trend is observed during August. The MLLJ height showed an increasing trend in all the data sets. Significant interannual oscillations in MLLJ strength and height are observed with a prominent periodicity of 2–3 years. The ISMR over Western Ghats region and central India showed strong positive correlation with the MLLJ strength as well as height except during August. It is noted that the influence of the MLLJ on rainfall over the Indian landmass is stronger during the onset and withdrawal phases of monsoon. The increasing trend in MLLJ height indicated the possibility of increase in rainfall over many regions in India especially Western Ghat and Central India.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04301-3

 
 
 

by

 Sajani Surendran, K. V. Ajay Anand, Suraj Ravindran and K Rajendran

 Abstract

Evaluation of century-long simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) reveals model fidelity in capturing characteristics of aerosols, clouds, convection, rainfall and circulation over India associated with the active/break phase with wetter/drier than average rainfall within the summer monsoon season. During the breaks, aerosols build up over central India due to desert dust transported from the west by anomalous circulation, the trapping of dust emissions from the Thar-desert and the increased aerosol lifetime in dry conditions. Break spells exhibit reduced cloud effective radius and enhanced lower atmospheric warming over central India as potential evidence for the indirect effect induced by dust aerosols. Consistently, break spells intensify in CESM simulation with increased loading of dust aerosols. The indirect effect of dust aerosols in warming the atmosphere and exacerbating the severity of breaks is conspicuous in simulations forced with the indirect effect of aerosols alone, both for present-day and pre-industrial periods.

 Source:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author/NKGRJEJN3M4KRQEVDZVE?target=10.1029/2022GL101106

Supplementary Information Source:

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To synergize the Transdisciplinary Pan-CSIR expertise and build a unified platform that embodies a rich set of big data enabling technologies and services with optimized performance to facilitate data intensive scientific discovery in the country.

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To Pioneer data driven interdisciplinary research in diverse fields through state-of-the-art data science ecosystem and impactful industrial partnerships for the betterment of Society.

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