by Sridevi Jade & T. S. Shrungeshwara 

The 2500 km Himalayan arc spanning Kashmir, Ladakh, in the west to Eastern syntaxis in the east is a tectonically complex and seismically active northern subduction boundary of the Indian plate. Three decades of GPS data give well-constrained surface convergence rates ranging from 10 to 26 mm/yr in the various segments of the Himalayas (Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal, Garhwal, Kumaun, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan, Arunachal and Eastern syntaxis). Arc parallel rates of 3–10 mm/yr is the manifestation of locked curvature of the central Himalayan arc and the E–W extension rate of Tibet. Inverse modelling of surface convergence rates is used to estimate oblique slip rate of 13–20 mm/yr along Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) at a depth of 15–20 km and locking width of 100–150 km from the frontal Himalayas suggesting that each segment of the Himalaya is unique in nature. Geodetic strain rates derived from the GPS-derived surface convergence rates suggest that the Himalayan region is predominantly under compression with high strain rate coinciding with the northern boundary of sub surface basal decollement (MHT) along which Indian plate subducts below Tibet. Seismic strain rates for each segment of the Himalaya are computed using the instrumental and historical earthquake catalogue. Seismic potential of each segment of the Himalaya is estimated by a combined analysis of geodetic and seismic strain rates and the corresponding moment rates. Further, strain budget and accumulated slip since the last devastating earthquake was used to estimate the recurrence interval and probable magnitude of impending earthquake in the Himalayan segments.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-7658-0_3