by Rameshan Kallummal

The spatio-temporal characteristics of the observed warming of the Indian Ocean (IO) surface temperature and its statistical link to the IO Warm Pool (IOWP) are still unclear. This study discriminates the basin-wide monotonic warming mode of the IO surface from the internally and remotely forced variability. The trend pattern reported in this study reveals a radically different warming signal. It shows that the monotonic warming in the observed sea surface temperature (SST) has the spatial pattern of summer-mean SST and the Warm Pool as its most conspicuous feature. The highest warming (0.17^∘C per decade) is in IOWP and not in the other IO regions identified in the previous studies. By 2070, IOWP will cover about 80% of tropical IO at the current latitudinal expansion rates. The mean states of equatorial SST, wind, and surface pressure are shifting towards an endless summer. Irrespective of the season, SST near Indonesia would remain above 31^∘C by 2080 and beyond (i.e., more than 2.2^∘C rise since 1950). This would substantially increase local rainfall intensity and frequency. Thus, IO is poised to play a more significant role in climate change. We also argue that the basin-wide warming is due to anthropogenic forces’ rectification by coupled processes in ocean-atmosphere mixed layers.

Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06181-9