Why is the Indian summer monsoon in CFSv2 hypersensitive to moisture exchange with the Pacific Ocean?
- विवरण.
- श्रेणी:Publications.
by Priyanshi Singhai, Arindam Chakraborty, Kavirajan Rajendran & Sajani Surendran
CSIR-NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF DATA SCIENCE AND AI
(Erstwhile CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute)
A constituent laboratory of Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR).
by Priyanshi Singhai, Arindam Chakraborty, Kavirajan Rajendran & Sajani Surendran
by P. Ipsita, V. Rakesh, Randhir Singh and G.N. Mohapatra
This study focuses to analyse the impact of land use changes on short range weather forecasts over Indian region. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation experiments are conducted by using land use data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) satellites for pre-monsoon and monsoon season. MODIS 2001 land use is used in control (CNT) experiment and updated land use with recent urban class from MODIS (EXP1) and ISRO (EXP2) for the year 2019 is used to generate model lower boundary conditions in other two experiments. Quantitative error measures and skill score computed for rainfall forecast showed that model skill is better with the use of realistic recent land use data from MODIS and ISRO during pre-monsoon and monsoon period. Extreme Dependency Index score computed also revealed that model skill in predicting extreme rare rainfall events is improved with recent landuse data. Model simulated surface meteorological variables and profiles at lower levels also found to be improved with the inclusion of realistic land use class from MODIS and ISRO. Between the two experiments, the one which used ISRO based land use showed larger improvement particularly during the monsoon season.
Source: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101558
by Nikhila Yaladanda, Rajasekhar Mopuri, Hariprasad Vavilala, Kantha Rao Bhimala, Krushna Chandra Gouda, Madhusudhan Rao Kadiri, Suryanarayana Murty Upadhyayula & Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni
Abstract
The northeast region of India is highlighted as the most vulnerable region for malaria. This study attempts to explore the epidemiological profile and quantify the climate-induced influence on malaria cases in the context of tropical states, taking Meghalaya and Tripura as study areas. Monthly malaria cases and meteorological data from 2011 to 2018 and 2013 to 2019 were collected from the states of Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively. The nonlinear associations between individual and synergistic effect of meteorological factors and malaria cases were assessed, and climate-based malaria prediction models were developed using the generalized additive model (GAM) with Gaussian distribution. During the study period, a total of 216,943 and 125,926 cases were recorded in Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively, and majority of the cases occurred due to the infection of Plasmodium falciparum in both the states. The temperature and relative humidity in Meghalaya and temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and soil moisture in Tripura showed a significant nonlinear effect on malaria; moreover, the synergistic effects of temperature and relative humidity (SI=2.37, RERI=0.58, AP=0.29) and temperature and rainfall (SI=6.09, RERI=2.25, AP=0.61) were found to be the key determinants of malaria transmission in Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively. The developed climate-based malaria prediction models are able to predict the malaria cases accurately in both Meghalaya (RMSE: 0.0889; R2: 0.944) and Tripura (RMSE: 0.0451; R2: 0.884). The study found that not only the individual climatic factors can significantly increase the risk of malaria transmission but also the synergistic effects of climatic factors can drive the malaria transmission multifold. This reminds the policymakers to pay attention to the control of malaria in situations with high temperature and relative humidity and high temperature and rainfall in Meghalaya and Tripura, respectively.
Source: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26672-4
by Raghavendra Prasad K, Kantha Rao Bhimala, G. K. Patra, Himesh S & Sheshakumar Goroshi
The present study analyzed the actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and its components [transpiration (Et), bare soil evaporation (Eb), interception loss (Ei), and open water evaporation (Eo)] data to study the long-term (1980–2018) trends over different meteorological sub-divisions in India. Quantitatively, all India average (µ) annual ETa is 573 mm (standard deviation (σ) = 29 mm), where Et (µ = 456 mm; σ = 30 mm) plays a major role compared to other evaporation processes like Eb (µ = 56 mm; σ = 9 mm), Ei (µ = 34 mm; σ = 3 mm), and Eo (µ = 27 mm). The Mann–Kendall (MK) test reveals an increasing trend (1.33 mm/yr) in annual ETa due to the rising trend in Et (1.91 mm/yr) and Ei (0.16 mm/yr). The sub-division-wise analysis shows the increasing trend in ETa observed over irrigated regions located in the south, north-west, and foothills of the Himalayas during pre-monsoon (March–May) and monsoon season (June–September). The correlation analysis observed a complex relationship between ETa and climatic factors (rainfall (RF), soil moisture (SM), surface temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), surface net solar radiation (SSR), and wind speed (WS)) during monsoon season such that the water-limited areas have a positive correlation with SM, RH and RF, and negative correlation with WS, T, and SSR, whereas, in energy-limited areas (east India), the ETa showed a positive correlation with SSR and T and negative correlation with RF. The main climatic drivers for the increasing trend of ETa are SM and rainfall over dry regions and SSR and T over densely vegetated regions in India.
by Ashish, Gokul Saha and Shyam S Rai
Summary
We investigate the 3-D shear velocity (Vs) structure of the crust beneath the Kumaon Garhwal Himalaya using joint inversion of interpolated receiver functions from 57 seismic stations, and Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion data in the period 2 to 100 s with significantly improved horizontal resolution of about 25 km. The velocity image reveals several important features. In the shallow crust, the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) is characterised as a flat-ramp-flat structure, inferred from the presence of low Vs of 3.1–3.4 km/s representing wet sediments dragged along the MHT and lying above the crystalline Indian crust of Vs ∼ 3.6 km/s. The MHT is at a depth of about 8 km beneath the southern edge of the Himalaya, dipping at 3○ to the north. At the front of the High Himalaya, the dip increases significantly to about 35○–40○ representing the ramp and reaching a depth of 24 km. Farther north beneath the High Himalaya, the MHT continues as a nearly flat structure. The middle crust (20–30 km) has reduced Vs (3.3–3.5 km/s) below the northern part of the Lesser Himalaya, possibly due to the presence of fluid released by metamorphism of the subducting Indian crust along with the presence of mica produced as a consequence of deformation. The thickness of the crust is ∼50 km beneath the sub and Lesser Himalaya and increases abruptly in the front of the High Himalaya to 60 km and remains so till the southern part of Tethys Himalaya. The observed thick crust with lower seismic velocity (and rigidity) beneath the High Himalaya could be responsible for its high topography. We report almost 6–8 km thinning of the crust in the eastern segment of Garhwal Himalaya adjoining Nepal.